In the event you play in rotisserie or a season-long factors league, the consistency of a participant is much less related to your fantasy efficiency.
However in a head-to-head league, consistency could make or break your season.
In an excessive, not possible instance, as an example Nathan MacKinnon collects each single projected fantasy level he was anticipated to get within the very first recreation of the season and does not rating once more within the remaining 81 contests.
Yep, on this surreal instance, the Colorado Avalanche have a wild first recreation and MacKinnon collects 205 fantasy factors in a recreation for the ages. Having achieved such a feat, he coasts for the remainder of the marketing campaign and does not acquire one other level.
On this absurd excessive, fantasy managers in rotisserie or season-long factors codecs received what they paid for on the draft desk. His 205 factors nonetheless rely towards the ultimate whole in a single recreation as a lot as they might unfold out over all 82.
However managers enjoying in head-to-head contests could be rather less enthused. Positive, Week 1 is a surefire win, however the remainder of the season turns into a bit of tougher to handle with their first-round decide accumulating zero factors from Week 2 ahead.
That is the place customary deviation in fantasy factors per 60 minutes (FPP60) and a participant’s coefficient of variation is available in.
The usual deviation (SD) is a measure of how a lot variance there’s in a set of information. On this case, now we have 43 weeks of fantasy information from the 2020-21 and 2021-22 season with every participant’s FPP60. (I save a snapshot of league information each Friday, so this information is a Friday-to-Friday take a look at the weeks. There are some exceptions, reminiscent of longer weeks for all-star breaks, byes and the start and finish of seasons.)
However the usual deviation alone is not sufficient to offer us a comparable piece of datum with different gamers. Tyson Jost‘s 2.06 SD is extra constant than Jakub Voracek‘s 2.13 SD, however that determine does not account for the truth that Jost’s FPP60 for the previous two seasons is 3.67 and Voracek’s is 5.01. So whereas Jost has much less variability in his output, a part of that’s as a result of his general fantasy output is a lot decrease.
That is the place the coefficient of variation (CV) comes into play. By how the usual deviation compares to the imply of the information set it is being derived from, we get a determine that is akin to different information units. Jost’s SD and FPP60 totals offers us a CV of 56.2%, whereas Voracek’s is 42.6%. A decrease coefficient of variation tells us Voracek is definitely much less unstable along with his output than Jost, despite the fact that the usual deviation instantly suggests in any other case.
Coefficient of variation, in different phrases, offers us an apples to apples comparability of the volatility of a gamers output over time versus different gamers.
Some notable asterisks for this information. I shouldn’t have entry to the weekly output of gamers who modified groups midseason in the course of the previous two years. So I haven’t got calculations for gamers like Patrik Laine, Tyler Toffoli or different in-season traded gamers. If a participant did not produce any fantasy factors in at the very least 20 of the 43 weeks being analyzed, they have been additionally excluded. And naturally, as at all times, that is all utilizing the default scoring system from ESPN to evaluate fantasy factors.
Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning: He does not personal the bottom CV over the previous two seasons, however he is shut. That, together with another components, is arguably sufficient to declare Hedman as probably the most constant fantasy participant. His 40.2% CV trails solely 4 different gamers, however his 6.00 FPP60 throughout these two seasons trumps all 4 of them. Moreover, the one time he notched a zero for one of many 43 scoring durations included on this information is when he skipped the final recreation of the 2020-21 season. And just one different time throughout these 43 weeks did he produce fewer than 3.00 FPP60. No different participant within the league had solely two weeks or fewer of lacking that 3.00 threshold.
It does not make him the primary general decide in head-to-head leagues by any means. But it surely does make him arguably the highest defenseman for these codecs and positively ought to enable for some consideration among the many first half-dozen picks. There’s one thing to be mentioned for reliability on the prime of your draft.
Alex DeBrincat and Brady Tkachuk, F, Ottawa Senators: These new teammates completed No. 1 and No. 2 amongst forwards for CV p.c. DeBrincat, enjoying the previous two seasons with the Blackhawks, was the highest ahead for coefficient of variation at 40.6%, incomes one week with zero factors and solely three whole weeks with fewer than 3.00 FPP60. Tkachuk, meantime, completed proper behind him at 41.2% CV, one week with zero factors and, like DeBrincat, solely three whole weeks with fewer than 3.00 FPP60.
And now probably the most constant fantasy forwards within the NHL for the previous two seasons are on the identical staff.
We’ll have to attend and see if the Sens resolve to make use of them on a line collectively (which is not any assure given what number of strong combos there are with the highest six). However DeBrincat and Tkachuk are most assuredly going to mix their abilities on the Sens prime energy play.
Adam Larsson, D, Seattle Kraken: So that is the place we have to take the evaluation a bit of additional than customary deviation and coefficient of variation. Larsson had the bottom CV amongst all NHLers final season at 35.0%. He was, bar none, probably the most constant fantasy producer. However once more, there’s some relativity right here that wants a deeper look.
Simply because a participant is constant, doesn’t suggest they routinely meet the edge required to be a fantasy asset. Larsson is on the bubble for shallow leagues. If you’re enjoying int a 10-team league with shallow rosters, he simply made the reduce for fantasy relevance final season. Larsson completed thirty seventh amongst all defenders in 2021-22 with the Kraken. The yr prior, with the Oilers, he did higher and completed twenty third. Heading into 2022-23, the Kraken can be a greater staff, however will it’s sufficient to take advantage of constant participant a fantasy common?
A number of the others on the prime of the consistency record want comparable evaluation. Radko Gudas (D, Florida Panthers) completed forty seventh final season amongst fantasy defensemen and 51st in 2020-21, however was very constant whereas doing so. His 38.7% CV is third general. Cody Ceci (D, Edmonton Oilers) ranks between Larsson and Gudas with a 38.0% CV, however completed effectively exterior the top-50 scoring defensemen the previous two seasons.
Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs: There’s a actual argument that Matthews ought to be the highest decide in head-to-head fantasy leagues even in the event you suppose Connor McDavid will edge him out within the general fantasy factors race. With a CV of 42.7%, Matthews was barely extra constant than McDavid’s 44.2 p.c. It is not a giant margin, to make certain, nevertheless it’s additionally not a giant margin between the 2 gamers because the no-brainer No. 1 and No. 2 fantasy skaters. If you’re torn between the 2 of them with the first-overall decide, Matthews is perhaps the play if yu are in a head-to-head format, whereas McDavid stays the selection in season-long codecs.
Different prime defensemen for consistency: Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets (40.1% CV); Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vegas Golden Knights (40.3% CV); Rasmus Andersson, D, Calgary Flames (40.4% CV); Esa Lindell, D, Dallas Stars (40.5% CV); Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes (40.7% CV).
Different prime forwards for consistency: Jakub Voracek, F, Columbus Blue Jackets (42.6% CV); Travis Konecny, F, Philadelphia Flyers (43.5% CV); Kyle Connor, F, Winnipeg Jets (44.4% CV); Ryan Strome, F, Anaheim Ducks (45.1% CV); Taylor Hall, F, Boston Bruins (45.6% CV); Aleksander Barkov, F, Florida Panthers (45.6% CV); Tomas Hertl, F, San Jose Sharks (46.0% CV); John Tavares, F, Toronto Maple Leafs (46.1% CV).
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One other pitfall of utilizing this system to guage the consistency of gamers is the inherent aberrations that a few of the small pattern sizes can produce. Attempting to poke holes in 43 weeks of information from 1,000 gamers could be fairly time consuming, however as I search to seek out the participant to take the crown as most inconsistent, I’m going to dig a bit of deeper.
Robert Thomas, F, St. Louis Blues: With a CV of 147.4%, Thomas initially seems to be extremely inconsistent. However he is not. On Feb. 6, 2021, Thomas scored a purpose and fired three photographs in three minutes of motion in opposition to the Arizona Coyotes earlier than he was injured and missed the following a number of weeks. However, due to how the weeks are divided up, these three minutes have been captured as a part of a whole week of information, giving him a ridiculous 46.00 FPP60. In the event you take that week out, his CV p.c is within the 80 p.c vary. Not nice, however not the worst. He does not take the inconsistent crown.
J.T. Compher, F, Colorado Avalanche: The subsequent candidate seems to be Compher, with a CV of 111.4%. However this forces us to ask the query: Is a participant used as a depth chart yo-yo to fill in for accidents inconsistent or doing precisely what he ought to be? When Compher was tasked with enjoying within the Avs prime six in the course of the previous two seasons resulting from accidents, he stepped up and produced. When he was buried again on the third or fourth line, he did not. Ought to he be labelled as inconsistent when he was simply doing his job? I do not suppose so.
Drake Batherson, F, Ottawa Senators: As soon as once more, dangerous timing of an harm may be blamed for an inconsistent CV. Batherson clocks in at 86.4% CV, however like Thomas, he had some dangerous timing. He missed just a few video games in late November final season, however not after ending one recreation within the Week 5 scoring interval with 8.8 fantasy factors in solely 18 minutes of motion. It is largely liable for pushing his CV share up. That mentioned, along with his teammates DeBrincat and Tkachuk main the league in consistency, maybe we will count on extra from Batherson this coming season. However he does not deserve the inconsistent crown.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, F, Carolina Hurricanes: We would have one thing right here. He is not tremendous fantasy-relevant, having completed within the 280s amongst skaters final season and No. 199 within the season prior, however Kotkaniemi hasn’t missed a lot time, performed a constant function and nonetheless has a mercurial CV share. At 82.3%, his CV is the bottom I can discover that does not have some form of unusual, injury-related asterisk to use to it. So I suppose Kotkaniemi will get an unenthusiastic vote as probably the most inconsistent skater.
Different forwards with inconsistency: Mike Hoffman, F, Montreal Canadiens (81.4% CV); Anders Lee, F, New York Islanders (80.3% CV); Teuvo Teravainen, F, Carolina Hurricanes (79.6% CV); Dylan Larkin, F, Detroit Red Wings (77.9% CV); Anthony Beauvillier, F, New York Islanders (73.3% CV); Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (72.5% CV); Jesper Bratt, F, New Jersey Devils (71.6% CV); Phil Kessel, F, Vegas Golden Knights (71.1% CV).
Defensemen with inconsistency: Jaccob Slavin, D, Carolina Hurricanes (74.3% CV); Thomas Chabot, D, Ottawa Senators (67.4% CV); Noah Hanifin, D, Calgary Flames (67.0% CV); Dougie Hamilton, D, New Jersey Devils (65.8% CV); Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers (64.6% CV).
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